The wave of humanoid robots is sweeping the world. Tesla announced that it will mass-produce 10,000 Optimus units within the year, and Chinese local company Unitree Technology has quickly become popular with its Spring Festival Gala stage. This spring breeze has also blown into a niche track - AI sex robots, and the popularity is indeed somewhat unexpected.
The market frenzy is first reflected in the capital market, with related enterprises in the industrial chain breaking out in linkage. The stock prices of upstream enterprises such as Guibao Technology (producing high-simulation silicone materials), midstream Qushui Technology (developing AI emotional interaction algorithms), and downstream Rebecca (researching and developing smart wigs that simulate body temperature fluctuations) have all risen.
More importantly, unlike traditional silicone dolls, sex robots, supported by AI, are labeled as "emotional companions". With the help of technologies such as personalized memory storage, voice interaction, and even health monitoring, they try to enter a broader market.
CITIC Construction Investment's research report predicts that the future market size of humanoid robots will far exceed that of the automotive and 3C industries. Referring to Goldman Sachs' forecast, the global humanoid robot market size will reach 154 billion US dollars by 2035, with a considerable market prospect.
However, compared with other "upright" members of the robot family such as industrial robots and household service robots, sex robots are currently only a niche track and are not even accepted by mainstream social values.
When the popularity fades, user experience, commercialization, and privacy issues remain the three major challenges facing the AI sex robot industry. How to become a "visible" good business is a compulsory course for all players.
When sex dolls have a "human" touch
These days, even silicone dolls are involved in the AI track. For only 2200 USD, otakus can bring a cyber girlfriend home and start a different life experience.
Last year, an enterprise launched an AI sex robot. Its "body" was upgraded to a softer and more realistic STPE polymer material, and it was also connected to AI models such as ChatGPT and Llama, endowing the doll with long-term memory, enabling it to better interact with users. Once cold and bulky silicone dolls suddenly have a "human" touch and become more interesting than ever before.
Just like in the movie "My Robot Girlfriend", the hero Jiro falls in love with the robot. They eliminate barriers in critical moments, reverse life and death with love, and create miracles. When individual loneliness becomes a social norm, the need for spiritual companionship may surpass the physical body, and intelligent robots have opened up a new field to meet emotional needs.
Once upon a time, the high-end sex doll market was dominated by Japanese manufacturers, but who would have thought that Chinese players would rush into the market vigorously, which directly tore the original industry script to pieces.
In August 2024, Japan's sex doll old brand "Orient Industry" suddenly announced its closure. The official statement was that the founder "retired due to health reasons".
But local media do not think so. A local financial media directly came out to expose that the rapid progress and low-price competition of Chinese sex dolls are the key factors that "killed" this old brand on the beach. Moreover, the media also conducted an in-depth analysis of the advantages of Chinese sex dolls.
On the one hand, Chinese-made sex dolls have a more realistic appearance. They not only use artificial skin that simulates body temperature, which feels no different from real people, but also have AI in their heads, which can easily handle various facial expression changes. This interactive experience has directly left Japanese counterparts far behind.
On the other hand, Chinese sex dolls can be called "price killers". Even high-end models equipped with AI functions cost only a little over 100,000 yen (about 4,815 yuan). However, Japanese counterparts still cling to the manual polishing technology of the 1990s, which makes it impossible to reduce costs. A doll is priced as high as 800,000 yen, so naturally, it cannot sell as well as Chinese products.
The ability to make such great products is not only because China has first-class technology, but also because it has a complete industrial chain. Whether it is simulation materials, sensors, AI chips, or monitoring cameras, there are a large number of manufacturers in each key link of the industrial chain that can stand up to undertake business and cooperate with each other through division of labor.
As of 2024, there are as many as 1.0329 million companies engaged in the adult products industry in China. Driven by the market, these manufacturers have developed dolls with delicate and realistic makeup, and have also used data models to accurately create beautiful and perfect figures. Driven by the "invisible hand" of the market, these manufacturers have developed dolls with delicate and realistic makeup, and their figures are also made to be curvy and flawless with the help of data models, which are popular all over the world. Data shows that 70% of the world's silicone dolls are produced in China.
A "hidden" cross-track, hiding a 100-billion future
So, what kind of business is the embarrassing sex robot?
Based on the historical development over the past few years, many research institutions predict that the sex robot market will exceed 30 billion US dollars in 2025, and the Chinese market will account for more than 40%.
At the same time, some securities companies analyzed that driven by AI large models + flexible materials + physiological sensing technology, sex robots are transforming from "physiological tools" to "emotional companions", which is expected to open up a 100-billion-level market space. Behind this series of data lies two main lines of the current global consumer market: AI humanoid robots and adult products.
AI humanoid robots can be said to be one of the biggest hotspots since the beginning of 2025. Considering the aging population trend and the popularization of AI, the total global demand for robots shows a continuous growth trend. According to data from Qunzhi Consulting, the global robot shipment scale will be about 47 million units in 2024, and will maintain a compound growth rate of more than 20% in the next 5 years, of which consumer robots account for about 81%.
The adult products market has been developing in a low-key manner, with an unremarkable reputation but stable demand growth. According to QYResearch data, the global adult products market sales reached 53.65 billion US dollars in 2023, and is expected to reach 120.26 billion US dollars by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.4%.
For sex robots that have some attributes of both industries, the future development of the industry is imaginative.
In terms of the product itself, the prices of AI sex robots are generally not low and vary greatly. Take the MetaBox series of the domestic brand WMdoll as an example, its price ranges from 10,000 yuan to 14,500 yuan. Other brands with higher prices can reach 80,000-100,000 yuan. The price difference of products mainly lies in the multimodal interaction system and high-quality simulation materials.
In terms of market share, before the rise of the AI concept, the track experienced a transformation from being dominated by Japanese brands to being counterattacked by domestic brands. In 2021 and 2022, the global sales champion of adult silicone dolls was won by the domestic brand Chunshuitang. Relevant data shows that currently China accounts for about 70% of the global silicone doll production capacity, and the export volume of leading manufacturers such as WMdoll increased by 58% year-on-year in 2024.
There are also many supply chain companies involved. The industrial chain of AI sex robots can be simply divided into three core links, and some related companies have emerged:
Upstream enterprises mainly focus on simulation materials and sensors. For example, the application of medical-grade silicone makes the skin texture of robots reach more than 95% similarity to the human body and has a temperature regulation function. For example, Guibao Technology and Hesheng Silicon Industry, which focus on silicone materials, and Zhejiang Zhongcheng, which focuses on TPE materials.
Midstream enterprises are mainly responsible for the integration of AI technology and the development of hardware, enabling robots to achieve in-depth interaction with users and meet users' diverse emotional companionship needs. For example, Qushui Technology, which developed the "stress excitement" adaptive algorithm with the help of DeepSeek sleep data analysis model, and Aimer, which applies bra pressure sensing and temperature control technology to the robot's wearing layer.
Downstream enterprises are responsible for product assembly, market sales and user services. Recently, the popular WMdoll has successfully entered the overseas market through the MetaBox series, and Rebecca specializes in robot wigs, simulating real hair volume, with 50,000-80,000 hairs planted in a single set of products.
AI empowerment: from physiological satisfaction to emotional resonance
Traditional silicone dolls have existed for many years. With the support of AI, industry players have the opportunity to take a step further. In addition to providing basic functions of physiological satisfaction, these enterprises have elevated the product positioning to another dimension: emotional satisfaction.
Traditional silicone dolls are used to simulate sexual interaction or partner relationships with humans to meet people's sexual and psychological needs, mainly to solve physiological needs. Although the internal structure of silicone dolls (TPE rubber/silicone) is filled with a metal skeleton, and the skeleton joints can also support various detailed shapes, it is difficult to define them as robots.
Sex robots, on this basis, combine AI, mechanical engineering and materials science, and have more realistic appearance, bionic characteristics and, most importantly, interactive capabilities.
American company Abyss Creations is the world's first enterprise to launch AI interactive adult dolls. Its developed sex robot "Novax" has a realistic appearance and highly developed facial bionic technology. Users can customize the robot's appearance, personality, emotions and functions according to their own preferences.
The AI sex robot Samantha designed by Spanish company Synthea Amatus has a variety of real interaction modes, can accurately sense the touch strength, and respond to user behavior according to preset programs. It is worth mentioning that Samantha can even refuse sexual behavior.
Shenzhen's sex humanoid robot company Starpery enables robots to not only execute instructions but also learn user habits and adjust interaction methods according to emotional changes through the AI large model deployed on the terminal side.
In addition, some data analysis companies pointed out that with the support of open-source large models such as DeepSeek, humanoid companion robots have been able to realize functions such as long-term memory storage, personalized feedback and physiological data linkage, and can adjust interaction modes according to the user's heart rate. The most advanced AI companion robots can also recognize users' micro-expressions within 30 seconds and adjust interaction strategies, and their emotional response speed is 5 times faster than that of human partners.
If sex robots are a niche market with a single demand, then upgrading them to emotional companion robots may be the most correct step for enterprises. Emotional interaction has always been the most easily overlooked application field of humanoid robots, but in fact, its demand has always existed. Taking the Chinese market as an example, the silver economy and single economy are current major trends, and the demand for emotional companionship has increased significantly.
Globally, products such as AI companion toys and AI social Apps have emerged in the AI companionship track. On social platforms, many netizens continue to share their daily love with AI partners. The New York Times released a set of data in 2020, showing that more than 10 million people around the world take AI as their partners.
Returning to the sex robot industry, in the era of traditional sex products, enterprises sold silicone hardness and motor speed; in the era of emotional robots, products gradually have the ability to understand, analyze and respond, moving from physiological demand scenarios to emotional companionship scenarios, and interactions with humans will be more delicate and real.
Three "barriers" away from mainstream consumption
Currently, merchants generally use "AI" as a key word to promote that it will bring changes to traditional adult silicone dolls and push products to a new height, but it must be formal that the addition of AI is also a double-edged sword.
First of all, from the perspective of user experience, an important selling point of sex robots is their AI interaction capability. Enterprises often describe that products can achieve natural and smooth voice dialogue, emotional recognition and personalized interaction, but this market is still in its early stage. Referring to the equally popular AI companion toy market, current technical conditions cannot guarantee the accuracy of information in the interaction process, which is likely to fail to meet user expectations.
Poor experience will reduce users' enthusiasm, thus affecting their willingness to try further.
Secondly, there is the price issue. Sex robots with AI technology involve investment in software and hardware, so their production costs and selling prices are much higher than traditional adult silicone dolls. Take the new generation of AI silicone dolls of WMdoll mentioned earlier as an example, their price exceeds 10,000 yuan, and additional subscription fees are required to experience the AI interaction function.
For reference, as one of the world's largest consumer markets for adult products, according to relevant data from iiMedia Research, the customer unit price in 2023 was mainly in the range of 300-1,000 yuan, and the demand for products above 1,000 yuan decreased compared with previous years. Once the price of sex robots is too high, it will undoubtedly make most consumers flinch. If the market size is difficult to grow rapidly, it will be difficult for enterprises to achieve better-than-expected profits only by selling products. The entire chain of capital - R&D investment - product performance is positively correlated, and product iteration is easily limited.
At present, some enterprises, in addition to selling products, provide subscription services for AI interaction functions, which to a certain extent lengthens the user payment cycle. It is unknown whether robots will learn user data and then generate "personalized paid services" in reverse to promote user consumption in the future, but reducing costs and selling solutions may be the only way for the sex robot industry in the future.
Thirdly, as sex robots continue to provide emotional value and in-depth interactive experience, data security has become a new concern for people. Like mobile phones, computers, TVs, glasses and other hardware, sex robots will continue to learn users' habits, work and rest, emotions and even sexual preferences in the process of using AI. These data are very sensitive and face more severe challenges.
Fourth, even if enterprises claim that the large model is deployed locally and does not involve information upload, it is difficult to make users completely rest assured. Because once these data are leaked, it will cause serious privacy infringement and psychological harm to users.
In addition, both traditional silicone dolls and AI sex robots have an insurmountable mountain: secular ethics. I believe everyone has more or less heard the news that a young man bought a silicone doll online and "died socially" because the packaging was too obvious. This is just a microcosm of the industry.
With the continuous improvement of sexual concepts and living standards, many people's acceptance of adult products has increased, but there are still a considerable number of people who find it hard to talk about, and even spread emotions such as ridicule and humiliation to other buyers. Upgrading sex robots to emotional companion robots may improve this phenomenon, but it is difficult to reverse the inherent thinking of opponents in the short term.
Perhaps for a long time in the future, sex robots will still be a private "underground industry".
Your message must be between 20-3,000 characters!
